rockstart
01-08 09:10 AM
I found this article in imminfo.com. I could not understand the below line in legal sense. Does this line means that delayed registration of birth is not acceptable?
The article is absolutely correct. The example would be a person was born in 1974 and at that time his/her birth was not registered for any reason. Then say for making passport or for GC process this birth was registered later in like 1998 which is like 24 years after the event. USCIS might not accept the birth certificate as authentic. Please refer to IV wiki for details on how such cases can be resolved. There are many people who have been thro this and though its not easy to answer this query there are enough documents that can be attached as supplimentry evidence to authenticate your BC.
The article is absolutely correct. The example would be a person was born in 1974 and at that time his/her birth was not registered for any reason. Then say for making passport or for GC process this birth was registered later in like 1998 which is like 24 years after the event. USCIS might not accept the birth certificate as authentic. Please refer to IV wiki for details on how such cases can be resolved. There are many people who have been thro this and though its not easy to answer this query there are enough documents that can be attached as supplimentry evidence to authenticate your BC.
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rolrblade
07-26 06:49 AM
Hi
I have a H1B visa valid till Apr 2009(still i can extend 3 more years). I am going to file I-140 and I-485 together on EB2 category. Along with this I am going to apply EAD for me and my wife.
What will be the status of my H1B if my EAD got approved and I-140 is still pending. In case if my I-140 get rejects, will i be out of status or I can continue with same H1B if i don't change company?
Or better to apply EAD for me (not to my wife) after the I-140 approval?
Please help me..
Thanks in advance.
--Raj
What you have asked is a question that has been answered quite a few times on this board. Could you please try to read through those and if you have a follow up question then please post or PM me.
Also, I thik you want to ask if I-140 gets "revoked" Is that the case ? If not and you are really taling about I-140 REJECTION then cheg's statement above holds true.
I have a H1B visa valid till Apr 2009(still i can extend 3 more years). I am going to file I-140 and I-485 together on EB2 category. Along with this I am going to apply EAD for me and my wife.
What will be the status of my H1B if my EAD got approved and I-140 is still pending. In case if my I-140 get rejects, will i be out of status or I can continue with same H1B if i don't change company?
Or better to apply EAD for me (not to my wife) after the I-140 approval?
Please help me..
Thanks in advance.
--Raj
What you have asked is a question that has been answered quite a few times on this board. Could you please try to read through those and if you have a follow up question then please post or PM me.
Also, I thik you want to ask if I-140 gets "revoked" Is that the case ? If not and you are really taling about I-140 REJECTION then cheg's statement above holds true.
ssnd03
03-04 04:59 PM
What about the thousands who lost 2-4 years because they were stuck in namecheck, now the name check is cleared but the dates will not move..frigging idiots..too little too late
Before giving the blue/green/red dots, think about this. they created a traffic jam and now they are suddenly releasing it. There were about 150-300k stuck in name check, now all of them are waiting for their PD to be current. (i am one of them too). Think how this will affect the overall queue.
Priority dates were current before early 2005 due to FBI namecheck delays and other processing delays. Hence, EB visa numbers were always underused (and lost). If these processing delays were not so much back then, retrogression would have happened earlier, because there is always more demand than supply for EB visa numbers.
Retrogression can only be resolved by increasing visa numbers and/or recapture of lost visa numbers. Retrogression has nothing to do with FBI namecheck delays. In fact FBI namecheck delays masked the retrogression for one or two years.
We should be happy that namecheck delays are over for now and will restore some degree of FIFO.
Before giving the blue/green/red dots, think about this. they created a traffic jam and now they are suddenly releasing it. There were about 150-300k stuck in name check, now all of them are waiting for their PD to be current. (i am one of them too). Think how this will affect the overall queue.
Priority dates were current before early 2005 due to FBI namecheck delays and other processing delays. Hence, EB visa numbers were always underused (and lost). If these processing delays were not so much back then, retrogression would have happened earlier, because there is always more demand than supply for EB visa numbers.
Retrogression can only be resolved by increasing visa numbers and/or recapture of lost visa numbers. Retrogression has nothing to do with FBI namecheck delays. In fact FBI namecheck delays masked the retrogression for one or two years.
We should be happy that namecheck delays are over for now and will restore some degree of FIFO.
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Dhundhun
11-24 01:20 AM
I write this letter to verify that Mr. XXXX XXXXX worked at YYYY YYYYY from Aug 1998 until December 2004. During this period he worked 40 Hours per week.
I think, individual can not possibly give "worked in company from... to..." and "number of hours". Only company representative can can sign that. The ex-coworker can certify only that "YYYY YYYYY worked with me from... to ...".
Mr. XXXX XXXXX rendered these services with the highest degree of responsibility and professionalism.
Ex-coworker can say that "While working with me Mr. XXXX XXXXX has shown responsibility and professionalism".
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the scope of ex-coworker giving experience certificate is limited to "working together". For example, some one behaving good with you might not be good with someone else. In company records, he might not have good records due to that.
My lawyer strongly asked me that ex-coworker must write only on the basis of his own experience. He must not start representing company and start mentioning things like joining date (unless the person hired you), salary, etc.
Well, in any case, your lawyer should be your guide.
I think, individual can not possibly give "worked in company from... to..." and "number of hours". Only company representative can can sign that. The ex-coworker can certify only that "YYYY YYYYY worked with me from... to ...".
Mr. XXXX XXXXX rendered these services with the highest degree of responsibility and professionalism.
Ex-coworker can say that "While working with me Mr. XXXX XXXXX has shown responsibility and professionalism".
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the scope of ex-coworker giving experience certificate is limited to "working together". For example, some one behaving good with you might not be good with someone else. In company records, he might not have good records due to that.
My lawyer strongly asked me that ex-coworker must write only on the basis of his own experience. He must not start representing company and start mentioning things like joining date (unless the person hired you), salary, etc.
Well, in any case, your lawyer should be your guide.
more...
alisa
07-07 12:31 PM
I gave it highest ratings. I encourage others to do the same.
InTheMoment
08-10 06:09 PM
This is not a proposal for a new law but regulations by the administration within the bounds of the current law.
My humble suggestion: Please do your homework before voicing your opinion.
guys, this kind of proposals have been raised million times in last 5 years. These guys are passing their time till next election. Nothing is going to happen till next election. So do not build any hopes. None of the proposal is going to be a law before election.
My humble suggestion: Please do your homework before voicing your opinion.
guys, this kind of proposals have been raised million times in last 5 years. These guys are passing their time till next election. Nothing is going to happen till next election. So do not build any hopes. None of the proposal is going to be a law before election.
more...
conundrum
05-25 07:44 AM
It seems the lines to the senator's (Kennedy's) immigration council/staffer is busy, asked me to call them after 5 mins... second time that is happening!!! Very fustrating..........
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uma001
05-24 10:14 AM
you may get 100 points it does not matter, We are still going to have country caps ...
How can i get 100 points, i dont have TOEFEL score and no relatives in US.
How can i get 100 points, i dont have TOEFEL score and no relatives in US.
more...
kavita_abb
10-09 12:18 PM
Hi,
Presently I am on H1B and my husband on H4 visa. I have to go to India permanently, so can my husband stay in USA on H4 visa while I am in india ? my husband is not willing to go to india at all. I tried hard all the way to make him convince. Can I travel alone without him ? what will be the problem in future for visa? please advise.
Thank you!
Kav
Presently I am on H1B and my husband on H4 visa. I have to go to India permanently, so can my husband stay in USA on H4 visa while I am in india ? my husband is not willing to go to india at all. I tried hard all the way to make him convince. Can I travel alone without him ? what will be the problem in future for visa? please advise.
Thank you!
Kav
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thomachan72
09-07 09:59 AM
you also should note that the writer does not talk about NRE / FCNR accounts at all. The interest income from these accounts has been declared completely exempt (no matter how much) from income tax. So on one hand you have accounts which are completely exempt and on the other (NRO) you are going to tax more???
more...
hebbar77
11-23 08:10 PM
Do you mean we can send checks for $ accounts to be deposited into local rupees accounts in india? Does this work. Do you know how long it takes for them to get the money after each cheque deposit?
I send through Wells Fargo to ICICI bank in Inida. You can open a remmitance account with wels fargo and wire transfer yourself. Every $1000 dollars they charge $9 dollars.
Advantage is money is there in 2 days.
Simplest way is ...send your mom, post dated checks for the whole year. Mail it through Prioriy mail using USPS.....ony costs 5 dollars. She can deposit the check every month. I 've been doing it for longest time.
Only , in case of emergency and you want to transfer 5000 or more, i like Wells Fargo Service.
I send through Wells Fargo to ICICI bank in Inida. You can open a remmitance account with wels fargo and wire transfer yourself. Every $1000 dollars they charge $9 dollars.
Advantage is money is there in 2 days.
Simplest way is ...send your mom, post dated checks for the whole year. Mail it through Prioriy mail using USPS.....ony costs 5 dollars. She can deposit the check every month. I 've been doing it for longest time.
Only , in case of emergency and you want to transfer 5000 or more, i like Wells Fargo Service.
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GotGC??
03-27 02:09 PM
You missed the sarcasm, never mind :)
Yes, depending on how the educational requirements in your LC is worded - I mean right down to the last word - it just might leave you with some room for manoeuvre.
Yes. I have paid quite amount of money to fill the PERM application.
So, what you are saying that I actually can continue the process?
Yes, depending on how the educational requirements in your LC is worded - I mean right down to the last word - it just might leave you with some room for manoeuvre.
Yes. I have paid quite amount of money to fill the PERM application.
So, what you are saying that I actually can continue the process?
more...
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nandakumar
01-18 04:40 PM
I'm the other voter,
Guys, it is the time to show up your support and contribute to this effort.
I only see one vote and that too mine on the attendance poll above.
Don't let anyone take your vote and your voice for granted.
Guys, it is the time to show up your support and contribute to this effort.
I only see one vote and that too mine on the attendance poll above.
Don't let anyone take your vote and your voice for granted.
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eb3_nepa
07-21 09:49 AM
EB3_NEPA
As Far I as know we cannot have 2 Visas at the same time. The logic behind this is, L1 Visa is specifically meant for Company Transfer and you need to be having at least 1 year in the Company even before applying for L1 Visa.
And coming to having H1 simultaneously is not possible as you will be doing a transfer from H1 to L1 as you are still in the country and your H1 visa becomes invalid. Also the 6 year limit applies to both the period spent on H1 and L1.
If you would require to start afresh , then you need to go back the country and get fresh L1 visa stamped and that would be valid for 6 years...
I was in the same situtation and had to transfer from L1 to H1 as I did not want to go through the Visa appointment hassles.
Hope this helps...
:( That sucks, but thanks for the info.
As Far I as know we cannot have 2 Visas at the same time. The logic behind this is, L1 Visa is specifically meant for Company Transfer and you need to be having at least 1 year in the Company even before applying for L1 Visa.
And coming to having H1 simultaneously is not possible as you will be doing a transfer from H1 to L1 as you are still in the country and your H1 visa becomes invalid. Also the 6 year limit applies to both the period spent on H1 and L1.
If you would require to start afresh , then you need to go back the country and get fresh L1 visa stamped and that would be valid for 6 years...
I was in the same situtation and had to transfer from L1 to H1 as I did not want to go through the Visa appointment hassles.
Hope this helps...
:( That sucks, but thanks for the info.
more...
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sumansk
10-24 06:08 PM
Hello guys ,
any idea why I cannot find the receipt numbers and its statis on the uscis web site.I obtained the receipt numbers from the back of the cheques that they cashed..
thanks in advance
any idea why I cannot find the receipt numbers and its statis on the uscis web site.I obtained the receipt numbers from the back of the cheques that they cashed..
thanks in advance
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go_guy123
02-28 09:53 AM
Silicon Valley Immigration Lawyer Blog Has Just Posted the Following:
The Federal government is about to start knocking on the doors of employers, demanding to see I-9 records and more. The Wall Street Journal reported that more than 1,000 audit notices (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703961104576148590023309196.html?K EYWORDS=miriam+jordan), or notices of inspection, are to be sent out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), part of the Department of Homeland Security, within the next few days. These "audit notices" are actually subpoenas, requiring employers to present original I-9 employment verification forms and payroll documentation. An employer is usually required to produce this documentation within three days. A sample I-9 subpoena is below.
Sample I-9 Subpoena (2-2011) (http://www.scribd.com/doc/49508862/Sample-I-9-Subpoena-2-2011)
The second page of this subpoena shows that ICE demands more than I-9 forms. They request records of all employees hired within the past three years, copies of the documents the employee provided when completing the I-9, detailed information about independent contractors, any Social Security no-match letters, and detailed payroll filings.
Employers should realize that these I-9 audits can target any employer, of any size and in any sector, whether or not the employer has H-1B (http://www.geelaw.com/lawyer-attorney-1054805.html)workers, L-1 (http://www.geelaw.com/lawyer-attorney-1054809.html) workers, or sponsors foreign nationals for employment-based green cards (http://www.geelaw.com/lawyer-attorney-1054839.html). As all employers must complete I-9's for new hires and maintain payroll records, all employers should be prepared for an audit. Fines for uncorrected technical and substantive errors on the I-9 forms range from $110 to $1,100. If an employer had technical or substantive errors on their I-9 forms, they might not necessarily realize this and could be exposing themselves to substantial fines.
These audits come as ICE has created an Employment Compliance Inspection Center. The Head of ICE recently explained that this new center would "address a need to conduct audits even of the largest employers with a very large number of employees." (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703951704576092381196958362.html?K EYWORDS=I-9+audit)The center is supposed to be staffed with specialists to pore over I-9 employee files of targeted companies.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?d=yIl2AUoC8z A (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:yIl2AUoC8zA) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?d=qj6IDK7rIT s (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:qj6IDK7rITs) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?i=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:V_sGLiPBpWU (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:V_sGLiPBpWU) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?d=7Q72WNTAKB A (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:7Q72WNTAKBA)
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom/~4/DpyqOn5n_Us
More... (http://rss.justia.com/~r/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom/~3/DpyqOn5n_Us/silicon-valley-employers-must.html)
In the era of big government and job growth mainly through increased government payrolls, we will see more of such jobs being "created" and "invented" and in case of the USCIS the costs being passed on in term of increased fees etc.
Unless US is dragged to WTO over these out of control H1B/ L1 fees this will never stop.
The Federal government is about to start knocking on the doors of employers, demanding to see I-9 records and more. The Wall Street Journal reported that more than 1,000 audit notices (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703961104576148590023309196.html?K EYWORDS=miriam+jordan), or notices of inspection, are to be sent out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), part of the Department of Homeland Security, within the next few days. These "audit notices" are actually subpoenas, requiring employers to present original I-9 employment verification forms and payroll documentation. An employer is usually required to produce this documentation within three days. A sample I-9 subpoena is below.
Sample I-9 Subpoena (2-2011) (http://www.scribd.com/doc/49508862/Sample-I-9-Subpoena-2-2011)
The second page of this subpoena shows that ICE demands more than I-9 forms. They request records of all employees hired within the past three years, copies of the documents the employee provided when completing the I-9, detailed information about independent contractors, any Social Security no-match letters, and detailed payroll filings.
Employers should realize that these I-9 audits can target any employer, of any size and in any sector, whether or not the employer has H-1B (http://www.geelaw.com/lawyer-attorney-1054805.html)workers, L-1 (http://www.geelaw.com/lawyer-attorney-1054809.html) workers, or sponsors foreign nationals for employment-based green cards (http://www.geelaw.com/lawyer-attorney-1054839.html). As all employers must complete I-9's for new hires and maintain payroll records, all employers should be prepared for an audit. Fines for uncorrected technical and substantive errors on the I-9 forms range from $110 to $1,100. If an employer had technical or substantive errors on their I-9 forms, they might not necessarily realize this and could be exposing themselves to substantial fines.
These audits come as ICE has created an Employment Compliance Inspection Center. The Head of ICE recently explained that this new center would "address a need to conduct audits even of the largest employers with a very large number of employees." (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703951704576092381196958362.html?K EYWORDS=I-9+audit)The center is supposed to be staffed with specialists to pore over I-9 employee files of targeted companies.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?d=yIl2AUoC8z A (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:yIl2AUoC8zA) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?d=qj6IDK7rIT s (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:qj6IDK7rITs) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?i=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:V_sGLiPBpWU (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:V_sGLiPBpWU) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?d=7Q72WNTAKB A (http://rss.justia.com/~ff/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom?a=DpyqOn5n_U s:BRsSWNtzAz8:7Q72WNTAKBA)
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom/~4/DpyqOn5n_Us
More... (http://rss.justia.com/~r/SiliconValleyImmigrationLawyerBlogCom/~3/DpyqOn5n_Us/silicon-valley-employers-must.html)
In the era of big government and job growth mainly through increased government payrolls, we will see more of such jobs being "created" and "invented" and in case of the USCIS the costs being passed on in term of increased fees etc.
Unless US is dragged to WTO over these out of control H1B/ L1 fees this will never stop.
more...
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chanduv23
03-26 06:41 AM
Took Emirate last month. the overall experience was good. Missed my flight from Dubai as the flight from JFK had to be de-iced. But Emirates arranged for my stay at Dubai and also got me a transit visa... so can't complain :) .
But I last year I flew home by Jet and I thought the service, food, everything about the flight was really good. Would strongly recommend flying by Jet.
Jet is not cheap anymore, they had the prices low for sake of promotion. It is very expensive now. Emirates is cheap. Thats what I am hearing. And emirates.com offers the lowest fares.
But I last year I flew home by Jet and I thought the service, food, everything about the flight was really good. Would strongly recommend flying by Jet.
Jet is not cheap anymore, they had the prices low for sake of promotion. It is very expensive now. Emirates is cheap. Thats what I am hearing. And emirates.com offers the lowest fares.
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NikNikon
July 15th, 2004, 03:01 PM
All these are amazing Anders, even with your rude intruder spoiling more potential shots you should be pleased with capturing images that a lot of photographer's only dream of taking.
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what_now
06-14 03:08 PM
CPO mail today......
kondur_007
03-29 09:12 PM
Thanks you very much for the reply.I appreciate.
Yes, Thats perfectly right.
Extension with Employer A is pending, reason is Security CheckThats what i was told and can't be done any thing untill they get back).
Yeah I am planning to go to India and try to get stamped there. But am just wondering that as the Extension with Employer A is in security check so does this cause any issues/delay in giving Visa in india.
I personally think (I am not a lawyer), the delay with your current employer's (employer A) petition for extension is very likely to be "employer" (who is probably under review) rather than "you". (the reason I believe that is the fact that they approved your H1b with another employer; so if it is security check on "you", that would not have happened.).
So if my assumption is correct, you should not have any trouble in getting visa stamped for "employer B" (new employer, with new H1b approval that you have - the one that came without I94),
Good Luck. (If at all possible, do one consultation with a competent attorney who can review all the facts, trust me, your money will be worth)
Yes, Thats perfectly right.
Extension with Employer A is pending, reason is Security CheckThats what i was told and can't be done any thing untill they get back).
Yeah I am planning to go to India and try to get stamped there. But am just wondering that as the Extension with Employer A is in security check so does this cause any issues/delay in giving Visa in india.
I personally think (I am not a lawyer), the delay with your current employer's (employer A) petition for extension is very likely to be "employer" (who is probably under review) rather than "you". (the reason I believe that is the fact that they approved your H1b with another employer; so if it is security check on "you", that would not have happened.).
So if my assumption is correct, you should not have any trouble in getting visa stamped for "employer B" (new employer, with new H1b approval that you have - the one that came without I94),
Good Luck. (If at all possible, do one consultation with a competent attorney who can review all the facts, trust me, your money will be worth)
alkg
08-13 08:41 PM
see the paragraph in bold letters.................
Greenspan Sees Bottom
In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
August 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
"Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
"Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
"It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Greenspan Sees Bottom
In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
August 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
"Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
"Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
"It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
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